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2020中国生育报告:是时候重新“定价”女性的生育了
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2020中国生育报告:是时候重新“定价”女性的生育了

8 四月 2020 - 11:04
前不久,网上对外国人永居条例讨论正热时,经济学家任泽平在微博上表示:
 
如果一定要降低(外国人永居的)门槛,我们建议优先引进外国年轻单身女性,解决中国性别失衡问题。
 
 
而昨天,他在公众号上发布了2020年的《中国生育报告》。报告中指出,2019年中国出生人口降至1465万,再创新低,而65岁及以上人口占比却达12.6%。
 
 
 
面对严峻的人口问题,让人忍不住好奇任泽平又会有什么“建设性”的建议。
 
在经济学家和治理者眼中,生育率下降是“危机”,失去人口红利对中国经济当然是巨大的打击,最直接的影响是,现收现付的养老金体系很快就会出现支付能力不足的问题。
 
最终劳动力不足、以及基于此对产业带来的结构性影响,会转化成经济压力分摊到我们每个人的身上:
 
从城镇职工基本养老保险基金看,2017年有6省养老金入不敷出,养老金抚养比(在职人数/退休人数)降至2.65,有7个省的养老金抚养比已降至2以下。
 
 
 
或许只有这样,每个人都切实感受经济上的切肤之痛,才能让国家真正意识到,生育这件事巨大的公共价值。
 
多年来,千万、上亿女性在生育这件事上创造的价值、付出的代价一直是被无视的。
 
 

是时候重新为女性的“生育”工作定价了

 
生孩子、带孩子,实际是被划分到无报酬且无地位的“私领域”工作——比不上“赚钱养家”来得重要。
 
于是,女性付出的生理代价、时间、精力、情感劳动、孩子对母亲自我的吞噬、职场歧视、专业发展机会、社会地位……一直被视而不见,仿佛空气和水一样理所当然。
 
大多女性只能自己背负一切,靠对母职“伟大”“爱”的信仰、以及对孤独终老的恐惧,来说服自己忍耐、付出和承担。
 
社会则习惯于享受她们的劳动成果,却没意识到她们也会有厌倦、罢工的一天。
 
当这种厌倦、委屈和拒绝积压成势,全国人口低生育率已经积重难返。
 
 
 
没有廉价的工人,就留不住大规模的制造业工厂;没有廉价的“母亲”,也就留不住中国经济的“人口红利”。
 
都是一样的道理。
 
中国女性承担了数代的“廉价母职”,如今只是默默地“罢工”、乃至“辞职”了。
 
如果不是今天生育率之低,对经济带来了“前所未有”的损伤,国家这个庞大的机器、以及多年来受惠于人口红利的经济体和精英个体,毫无疑问会继续无视“生育”的价值,以及背后千万普通女性所承受的不公正待遇。
 
人口负增长、生育率下跌、老龄化速度前所有……在个人自我意识越来越强的今天,呼吁“为国生娃”是有点可笑的,就好像老板让员工为公司奋斗,但是不发工资只谈理想一样流氓。
 
只要父亲在养育中继续缺位,女性要付出更多的时间精力、企业要为女性员工生育承担更多的成本、职场性别不平等无法缓解,那么生孩子对女人来说就永远是一件“不划算”的事,愿意做“亏本生意”的人只会越来越少。
 
是时候重新审视“生育”这份工作的公共价值、并重新思考分配制度了。毕竟,发展是为了人,而不该让人牺牲个体幸福来成全发展,那是本末倒置。
 
抛开“以经济建设为中心”的单一逻辑,生育率下降并非洪水猛兽,而是文化进步的必然结果。
 

生育率下降的根本原因

 
“以经济建设为中心”是一种治理者思维。
 
人口下降似乎已经成为“危机”,但是低生育率数字的背后,同时存在着令人期待的丰富性。
 
80后、90后、00后们旺盛的生命力、个体意识和独立思考的能力,都是不可逆转的现代性的一部分。
 
从一线城市到县城小镇,千千万万人的婚姻观、生育观念正在发生纷繁复杂的变化,其中蕴含着多元生活方式的可能。
 
报告中也提到,晚婚晚育、单身丁克削弱了生育基础。
 
 
 
育龄妇女规模已见顶下滑,其中,2030年20-35岁主力育龄妇女规模将比2018年减少29%,其中25-30岁生育高峰期妇女将减少41%
 
 
要知道,2015年中国的单身女性已经600万了,这个数字还在持续增加。
 
也就是说,不仅主力育龄女性人数变少了,她们中间还有一大批人根本不想结婚。
 
而中国的生育是以结婚为前提的,即使结婚,又有相当一部分不想生育——2003年的一项调查表明,丁克家庭在深圳市户籍家庭中占比约为10%左右,且呈上升趋势。
 
当然,和单身社会趋势紧密相连的另一个问题是单身女性的生育权。这也是提高生育率的一个可操作、有意义的方向。
 
 
 △建议使用“单身女性”,而不是用“剩女”一词。
 
应该说,从随波逐流地繁殖后代,到怀疑、反思、做出不一样的决定,这是思想更成熟的一代人。
 
他们不是迷茫、原子化的“人口”,而是有个体意识、懂得优化自我选择的公民,就像经济的“增速换挡”一样,不管主动被动,我们的人口看样子也在“转型升级”了,只不过阵痛过于剧烈,让人一时不适。
 

该考虑女性的权利与需求了

 
国家当然很着急,且已有所行动,开始催婚催生。
 
“单身税”、全面二胎、离婚冷静期……不过所有试图促进生育的措施,最终还是要靠女性的子宫来落实。
 
而生不生,这个决策权正越来越多地回到女性自己的手中。
 
也就是说,哪怕我们是男权文化源远流长的国家,为了缓解人口压力,也必须考虑女性的权利和需求了。
 
作为一位25-30岁之间、单身、也不怎么想生育的育龄女性,我看到“国家人口出现负增长”这条热搜,说实话第一反应是忍不住笑出声。
 
想想曾经覆盖全国一半人口的“一孩半政策”(编者注:指的是从1984年起采取的在大多数农村第一孩为男孩的不得再生,而第一孩为女孩的农户在间隔4到5年后允许生育第二孩的弹性计划生育政策。),女性曾经在法律上公开被当作半个人来对待。
 
而今天,这“半个人”组成的群体,却成为备受关注、寄予厚望的“主力育龄女性”,承担着缓解老龄化、盘活经济的重任。
 
看到国家今天突然如此需要我们,不惜盖上“为国生娃”的勋章,几乎升起一小股暗搓搓的幸灾乐祸——作为一个连延续自己DNA都不太在乎的小小个体,我们哪里还会被“为国生娃”这种宏大话语所打动呢?
 
想让人们“为国生娃”,还是得靠双赢的举措,尤其是对女性权益的保护。
 
减轻她们的成本,增加她们的收益,投入产出比合适了,自然就会有所缓解。
 
比如,法国积极推进家庭和工作的平衡,通过包括完善细致的津贴体系、多样化的托幼服务和打造家庭友好型企业氛围等来实现工作和家庭的平衡,男女劳动参与率差距仅不到10%,总和生育率接近2。
 
 
 
而在传统性别分工激化工作与家庭矛盾的日本,总和生育率只停留在1.4左右。
 
 
 
老龄化与负增长,可能是一场难以避免的自食其果。
 
如果治理者真的关心这个问题,还是要回到个体需求和生存状态上,来考虑政策的制定。
 
 
作者:翩翩
公关女/女权主义者/中国传媒大学传播学硕士
 
P.S. 本文观点仅代表特约作者个人观点,部分图片来源网络。
(未经允许,禁止转载)
 
 

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